School of Social & Political Sciences

Reform UK’s meteoric rise in the polls is highly significant, but history tells us to be cautious in making assumptions so far before the next election.

“I want you to take a moment to picture the day when, in just a few years’ time, Prime Minister Nigel Farage triumphantly arrives at No. 10 Downing Street, puts his briefcase down on the desk and takes a seat”. These were the words of Reform UK’s then chair Zia Yusuf at his party’s East England conference at the beginning of 2025. Back then, Reform were behind the governing Labour Party and level with the second largest parliamentary party, the Conservatives, in the polls. At the time of writing, a year later, Reform is not only leading the polls but has begun to turn good polling into electoral success, gaining the most councillors in England’s local elections and coming second in both the Scottish and Welsh devolved parliaments. At first glance, therefore, Yusuf’s year-old prediction appears to be an act of prophetic wisdom; political history, however, shows that assertions like this should be taken with a large degree of caution.

Labour’s decisive election victory less than two years ago means that the likelihood of another election before 2029 is very low. “A week is a long time in politics”, former Prime Minister Harold Wilson once mused; three years, therefore, offers a plethora of scenarios and situations that could lead to the complete reshaping of public opinion by the time Britain gets to choose its next government. Polling inaccuracies at this stage of a government’s tenure form the core of this paper’s argument, reinforced with examples from former UK elections, foreign elections and statistics which show that Reform’s polling bubble may be about to burst.

“Polls are like perfume – nice to smell, dangerous to swallow”

This advice from former Israeli President and Prime Minister Shimon Peres reflects on the exciting nature of polls - providing a glimpse into the future, but warns of the perils of accepting them as factual. This has rung true in recent years, following a series of inaccurate polling calls, most notably at the 2015 General Election and the 2016 European Union Membership Referendum. Pollsters got these results wrong on the day of the vote, let alone three years before. Data from previous elections show that in all but one of the last four General Elections, the party leading in the polls three years before the election was unable to maintain their momentum by the time of the election. Keiran Pedley, a pollster from the polling giant Ipsos, corroborates this by stating that if Labour are 10 points behind Reform (as they currently are) “at this very obvious low ebb (for the Labour Government) then the next General Election 3 years from now is very winnable”.

“Events, dear boy, events”

Reputedly, this was former Prime Minister Harold Macmillan’s response to a question on what the greatest challenge for a statesperson was. Although simplistic, it rings true to the fickle nature of political fortunes. Crises are inevitable; their scale and how they are handled shape public opinion and trigger cataclysmic shifts in political parties' popularity. Take, for example, Britain’s longest-serving 20th-century Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher. 22 months into her first term as Prime Minister, at a similar point to where Keir Starmer is now, her government’s approval ratings were 16 per cent (not far off Starmer's government’s current 13 per cent). A year later, Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands, a British overseas territory in the South Atlantic. This unprecedented ‘event’ forced Thatcher into action, and within days she had dispatched a task force to the islands with the goal of returning British sovereignty to them. Britain’s decisive victory in just over two months was enjoyed by the general public as reminiscent of the ‘clear military triumph’ the nation had achieved in 1945, and as a result, Thatcher’s government’s poll rating rapidly rose to 51 per cent, 35 points higher than it had been a year prior.

A seismic event with a popular response, therefore, could reshape Starmer’s chances and squander Reform’s. This possibility provides a lifeline of hope for the embattled Prime Minister. The one governmental arena where he has received more praise than criticism throughout his premiership has been the international stage. His skilful handling of President Trump and ability to forge new, improved relationships with both the European Union and China have seen the rare occasions where the Prime Minister has received a multitude of plaudits from across the political spectrum. None so far has been powerful enough to be considered his ‘Falklands Moment’, but his display of aptitude in this field indicates that should an event with a similar level of cut-through to the Falklands war occur, he could well have the ability to reap its political rewards, simultaneously damaging Reform’s optimism.

“It’s the economy, stupid”

These assertive words by former President Bill Clinton’s strategist, James Carville, highlight the factor that often most affects political outcomes: the economy. In what would be positive news for the government and therefore negative news for Reform’s chances, Britain’s economy might be on the verge of providing Starmer with some long-awaited and coveted domestic success. Falling household and private debts give Britain ‘an extremely healthy balance sheet’ and mean that Britain has become one of the least indebted countries in the world. This has created the conditions for a ‘powerful’ cyclical economic recovery and potentially ‘the highest growth rates for a generation’. Although not necessarily a result of Labour’s actions in government, evidence shows that a country’s economic success generally translates to political success for the incumbent. This will undoubtedly harm Reform, whose success has been assessed by commentators as having thrived partly due to the nation’s economic hardships and the party’s promise to alleviate them.

Collapsing Immigration

Further damaging Reform’s potential success are recent figures that have been released by the Office for National Statistics showing that net migration has fallen ‘far lower than anyone had expected’. The issue of immigration has been ‘the primary strategy’ of Reform, evidenced by the prevalence of ‘Operation Restoring Justice’, their plan to ‘secure Britain’s borders’ as the principal policy advertised on their website. Increasing concern and rhetoric about this has been essential to Reform’s rising success in polling, which reflects adjacent polling that shows that Britons believe immigration should be the government's highest priority. The recent fall in immigration appears to be proving accurate the projections made by several data analysts who have predicted that immigration will fall ‘very sharply’ in the coming years and could even reach net zero (a Reform promise) by the end of 2026. Without the ability to point to an immigration crisis anymore, Reform will struggle to resonate with the number of voters it has so far been able to, and if Starmer is able to frame a mass decrease in immigration as a Labour government success story, then support could well shift away from Reform and back towards the incumbent.

Messaging is Key

As seen during the 2010-2015 coalition government, messaging is imperative to politics. Then Chancellor George Osborne was able to use ‘statecraft’ (‘the art of governing’ in order to achieve aims) to manufacture the message that austerity was delivering success, helping to pave the way for the Conservative majority achieved at the 2015 General Election. If the aforementioned positive economic and immigration figures predicted by some does begin to materialise, then the government will best be able to reap its electoral rewards by taking control of the narrative and convincing voters that they are the ‘safe pair of hands’ who have delivered it. However, if, through more effective messaging, Reform is able to control the narrative, lamenting that the government has not been able to properly resolve these problems, then they may be able to retain or even expand their poll lead regardless of a changing economic and migratory outlook.

Looking to 2029

Reform UK’s rise in support has been unprecedentedly extraordinary for a country that has oscillated between the two same parties since 1945. Nonetheless, this meteoric rise may have occurred too far in advance of the next election to translate into electoral success. There is a likelihood that impactful ‘events’ or gradual yet fundamental changes in the country’s immigratory and economic situation will reshape the polls over the coming three years. Australia and Canada (both Westminster systems) witnessed this in 2025, with both countries’ incumbent centre-left parties being far behind right-wing parties in polling until only months before their elections, when, thanks partly to international events, both were able to pull off astounding victories. Whilst Reform’s polling success should not be ignored, the past proves that their victory is far from guaranteed.

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This blog is part of the SPS Student Academic Blog series. You can read more contributions from the series here.

First published: 19 May 2026